new opinion polls

The economic crisis in the UK is having surprising effects on party politics. Gordon Brown has announced a series of tax cuts to limit the impact of the recession, while the Conservatives have criticized him for increasing the deficit. Cameron announced the Tories would give up their pledge to keep the same amount of public spending once they are back in government. But this appears as much less obvious than a few months ago: the latest MORI poll gives only a 3-point lead to the Conservatives, with 40% to Labour's 37% (the Lib Dems would be down to only 12%). As a result, not only is Brown more firmly in the driving seat, but rumours about a possible general election next Spring, as opposed to 2010, have returned. See Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian today.

The Glenrothes by-election

Gordon Brown's improving situation was confirmed yesterday, when the SNP failed to win the Glenrothes seat in Scotland. Although originally a safe Labour seat, the constituency had been expected to switch to the SNP when the PM was so unpopular. In the end, Labour managed to keep it, though with a reduced majority of 6,000 and a swing of almost 5% to the SNP. This is undoubtedly a personal victory for Brown, who campaigned there, and confirms that the economic crisis has helped him in the polls.