Obama on the "special relationship"

It appears that Barack Obama, the likely democratic contender at the next American presidential election, made some interesting comments on the "special relationship"(SR) with the UK at a recent fund-raising event in London. Speaking on the telephone from the US, he said that he would expect the SR to be "fairer" and "more equal" in the future, and that the US administration should learn to take more account of its allies' views. This is good news for the British diplomacy, still reeling from having got back so little from its support for the Iraq invasion in 2003. It is also a way, both for Obama and Brown, to turn the page of the Blair/Bush alliance and establish, provided Obama is elected, a more equal partnership.

The Crewe and Nantwich by-election

Another disaster for Gordon Brown: Labour lost its until then safe seat in Crewe and Nantwich to the Conservative party, with an impressive swing of almost 18%. A jubilant David Cameron was able to claim that it was "the end of New Labour". It was actually the first time in 25 years that the Conservatives beat Labour in a by-election - another ominous sign for the next general election. Gordon Brown reacted by arguing that voters were expressing worries about the economy, as opposed to his own leadership, but few people were convinced.

Bioethics

In the last couple of days, the House of Commons witnessed some of the passionate and in-depth debates for which the British Parliament is rightly famous. On Monday 19 May, MPs were asked to vote on the possibility for scientists of creating hybrid man/animal DNA for medical research. After several hours of heated debate, a majority approved it, confirming Britain's lead in this kind of research (as opposed to the US, where President Bush will not allow stem cell research).
Yesterday (Tuesday), the debate was first about an amendment proposed by Ian Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, to limit access to fertility treatment to heterosexual couples. It was also rejected. Then it moved to abortion: Conservative MPs had introduced a series of amendments to reduce the time limit for abortion, which is presently of 24 weeks - one of the longest in the world, to 22, 20, 16 or 12 weeks. In the end, all these admendments were rejected, leaving the legislation unchanged. But although all main parties had allowed a free vote on these controversial issues, votes were actually largely along party lines, the Conservatives favouring a more restrictive legislation whereas the Labour MPs voted for the status quo. David Cameron voted for a limit of 20 weeks. So the topic might come back if the Tories win the next general election. In the meantime, read the fascinating debates.

Scotland continued

In the latest episode in the Scottish referendum saga, Scottish Labour members forced their leader, Wendy Alexander, to back down on her pledge to support a referendum - in keeping with Gordon Brown's own views on the subject. The Scottish Labour party is therefore again officially opposed to a referendum, which will have significant consequences: since the SNP does not have an overall majority in Holyrood, it can only pass legislation authorising a referendum if it has the support of other parties, or if they abstain. With the Conservative party, Labour and the Liberal Democrats all opposed to such a referendum, it should not take place in 2010... unless something new happens in the meantime. Watch this space !

Referendum in Scotland

A new sign of disarray within the government appeared in the last few days, this time from Edinburgh. The Labour leader in Scotland, Wendy Alexander, announced a U-turn in her party's policy towards the idea of a referendum on independence in Scotland. The aim of the SNP, in power in Holyrood since 2007, is to organise such a referendum in 2010. Until now, Labour, like the (weak) Conservative party in Scotland, had opposed it strongly. Suddenly, W. Alexander claimed that the voters should have their say as early as possible. The reason for this apparent change of opinion is that Scottish Labour is confident voters would decide against independence now (according to opinion polls), but might change their minds in the future if the SNP government remains popular and if the Conservatives win the next general election in Westminster. But it seems that Gordon Brown, himself a Scot of course, was not consulted and disapproves strongly of this initiative - new evidence of his weakening grip on his own party.

Local elections

A beleaguered Gordon Brown faced an electoral disaster at the local elections on 1 May, even worse than what the opinion polls had predicted. Labour only got 24% of the votes, against 44% for the Conservatives and 25% for the Liberal Democrats. This was their worst defeat at local elections in 40 years. The most spectacular result was Ken Livingstone's defeat in London: the seemingly popular Mayor, who had successfully introduced the congestion charge to reduce traffic in London, was beaten by the young Tory maverick, Boris Johnson.
These results will obviously boost the prospects of David Cameron, the leader of the Conservative party. It is a major setback for the Prime Minister, and pundits were wondering over the week end whether he stood a chance of turning public opinion before the next general election, in 2009 or 2010. At least, he is unlikely to face a challenge from within the party in the meantime, as there is no obvious candidate to stand against him - who would want to become leader now anyway, as food and fuel prices rise, and face the likely prospect of a defeat ? But parliamentary rebellions might be further encouraged by the MPs' fear of losing their seats. The next battle will be over the government's plan to lengthen the time when terrorist supects can be detained without charge to 42 days (it is 28 days at the moment).